As many as two million class 6 to 8 trucks are expected to enter the after market for emissions control and after-treatment components by 2020, according to a recent news release from Frost & Sullivan.
Citing a new analysis, the market research firm predicts demand for those after-market components will increase manufacturers’ revenues to $694.8 million in 2020 from $308.7 million in 2014.
The study covers exhaust gas recirculation valves and coolers as well as diesel particulate filters, the release said.
DPFs will account for the bulk of the growth, according to the report’s executive summary. Their share of classes 6 to 8 emissions control and after-treatment components revenue is projected to reach 40.1 percent in 2020 from 14.4 percent in 2014 “because of the increasing replacement rate and the high cost of repair,” the summary said.
“The first batch of trucks outfitted with EGR valves, EGR coolers and DPFs since 2007 is exiting the warranty period,” the release quoted Anuj Monga, a Frost & Sullivan intelligent mobility research analyst. “These components will require continuous maintenance and periodic replacement, spawning new revenue streams in the class 6 to 8 truck aftermarket.”
The technologies’ complexity and the young age of the market create a “high barrier of entry,” which the research firm says is the biggest challenge. Independent after-market stakeholders are also at a disadvantage because original equipment suppliers possess more of the technical knowledge and capabilities, the release added.
At present OESs such as Cummins and BorgWarner control over 90 percent of the revenue, the executive summary noted.
Despite such OES advantages, the report predicts independent manufacturers will provide intense competition as warranties expire, the release said. For example, those independents that have been relegated to DPF cleaning and periodic services “will begin to stake a greater claim to the market.”
The report predicts that the independents’ share of revenue will rise to 6.8 percent in 2020 compared with four percent in 2014.
Anyone wishing more information can access a complimentary copy of the executive summary from the Frost & Sullivan website, ww2.frost.com.
