A recent Bloomberg | Truckstop survey of owner-operators and small fleets indicates a more positive outlook for carriers, driven by improved market conditions in the fourth quarter of 2024.
“While many carriers feel that rates and demand have yet to reach optimal levels, there is growing optimism about the outlook,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “We believe the trucking cycle has turned, which should drive better spot and contractual rates, as well as robust earnings for carriers this year.”
The survey highlights key insights from the trucking industry:
- Demand is showing signs of improvement: Owner-operators are becoming more optimistic, following a stabilizing spot market in Q4. Over half (55%) of respondents anticipate higher freight volumes in the next three to six months, reflecting a 15-point increase from Q3. Many carriers experienced a less turbulent truckload market in the last quarter.
- Spot rates are rebounding: Over the past three months, sentiment regarding spot rates has improved. According to the survey, 51% of respondents expect rates to rise in the coming months, a 22-point jump from Q3. Supporting this optimism, Truckstop data reveals that spot rates increased by 1.5% in Q4 and 7.8% year-over-year. Additionally, 13% of carriers reported rate growth compared to the previous year, up by five points from Q3.
- Carriers remain cautious about the road ahead: While economic concerns have eased, uncertainty still lingers. The percentage of truckers who believe the U.S. is in or near a recession fell to 59%, down from 80% in Q3. However, 44% remain uncertain about their future in the industry over the next six months, a 9-point increase from the previous quarter. A tighter market could further push up spot rates, encouraging more drivers to stay. Truckstop’s Market Demand Index rose by 28% on average in Q4 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
“Our latest survey results indicate that demand is stabilizing, and conditions are becoming less challenging, leading to increased optimism among carriers,” said Kendra Tucker, chief executive officer, Truckstop. “Truckstop is dedicated to equipping carriers with the tools they need to operate more efficiently and profitably, offering innovative solutions that helps their businesses grow and adapt to industry changes.”
The survey included 176 respondents, covering various segments such as dry-van, flatbed, temperature-controlled, and specialized carriers, with 53% operating a single tractor.