North America’s truck market is showing signs of a slow but steady rebound, with industry analysts forecasting a modest increase in purchases through 2025.
While economic pressures and regulatory uncertainty continue to weigh on fleet decisions, rising freight volumes and strategic fleet planning are expected to drive incremental growth.
According to the American Trucking Associations (ATA), freight volumes are projected to increase by 1.6% in 2025, with long-term growth reaching nearly 14 billion tons by 2035. This uptick in demand is encouraging fleets to reassess their equipment needs, especially as aging vehicles and deferred purchases from previous years begin to impact operational efficiency.
However, the road to recovery is far from smooth. ACT Research reports that Class 8 truck orders remain near historic lows, with cancellations on the rise and OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) slowing production. Many fleets are taking a cautious approach, citing high inventories, elevated component costs, and uncertainty surrounding the EPA’s (US Environmental Protection Agency's) 2027 emissions regulations.
“Fleets are in a holding pattern,” said one industry analyst. “They’re watching regulatory developments closely and balancing short-term cost pressures with long-term sustainability goals.”
Tariffs on imported components are also contributing to the hesitation. Recent estimates suggest that tariffs could add between $375 and $580 per unit, further complicating purchase decisions for cost-sensitive operators.
Despite these challenges, there are bright spots. The vocational truck segment, particularly in construction and infrastructure, may benefit from federal investment and lower interest rates. Additionally, the number of net new carriers has begun to trend upward, signaling a baseline demand for trucking capacity that could support future purchases.
Medium-duty trucks, while still below replacement levels, are seeing selective investment as fleets prioritize essential upgrades. Meanwhile, electric and zero-emission trucks continue to gain traction, especially among urban delivery and municipal fleets, though adoption remains limited by infrastructure and cost barriers.
Industry experts suggest that the second half of 2025 could bring more clarity, especially as regulatory guidance firms up and economic conditions stabilize. For now, the market remains cautiously optimistic.
“Truck purchases won’t surge overnight,” said a fleet manager based in Ontario, Canada. “But the fundamentals are improving, and we’re preparing for a more active buying cycle in the next 12 to 18 months.”
As fleets navigate this transitional period, service truck operators and aftermarket suppliers should stay alert to shifting demands.
Whether it’s maintenance, retrofitting, or mobile service support, the evolving truck landscape presents both challenges and opportunities.