FTR Transportation Intelligence Chairman Eric Starks provided an upbeat keynote opening address at Truck World 2026 in Toronto on April 16, 2026, with a downbeat outline of a risk‑heavy operating environment for 2026.
“Who likes chaos?” asked Starks of his audience, describing that whether we like it or not, the Canada-US trucking industry (or pick an industry) has got it in 2026.
FTR brands itself as an expert in fundamental freight analysis, forecasting the future of freight. The company started in 1985 in Bloomington, Indiana. It provides specialized market research, data, and forecasting services for the trucking, rail, and intermodal industries.
“We are dealing with a substantial amount of chaos in the market and in the world,” explained Starks. He pointed to the most obvious global trouble-causing segments, which, regardless of their seeming remoteness, play an integral role in how the North American trucking industry goes about its business.
For example: Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Immigration, ICE, Venezuela, tariffs, Canadian dollar, cryptocurrency, China. And while Starks acknowledged that many of those issues are American-made, he said that CUSMA is one item that is on the agenda, but hasn’t had an impact on global economics. Yet.
While discussing America’s involvement in Iran, he highlighted that President Trump et al may be pondering just how to extract itself from “this quagmire” He added: “I don’t think they have a good exit strategy. That means oil prices will remain high.”
Starks did suggest that the upcoming expiry of CUSMA (the Canada‑United States‑Mexico Agreement) will play a big role for all sides in how and the quantity of goods are moved across borders.
President Trump called the original NAFTA “the worst trade deal ever made,” and sometimes framed CUSMA as only a partial fix. He argued that Canada had taken advantage of the US under NAFTA and that CUSMA was needed to “rebalance” the relationship.
However, he continued to criticize Canada’s dairy system and said CUSMA didn’t go far enough. He suggested at times that the US could still walk away from the deal if it wasn’t enforced the way he wanted. Then again, President Trump also claimed the US “got the better end of the deal.”
Boast or not, President Trump wasn’t happy with CUSMA, grudgingly stating: “It’s better than NAFTA, but I wanted even more concessions.”
Starks implied that CUSMA will be dismissed by the US when it comes time for renewal in July 2026, and will instead lead to bilateral trade deals with itself and Mexico, and with itself and Canada. He added that in the ensuing outcry, the US will have its distraction and be able to extract itself from its Middle East troubles.
Starks asked the audience what they knew about life after tariffs. He said that via Section 232 tariffs were essentially placed with a 10% across the board rate. Then, President Trump learned he could have gone as high as 15%, and said he wanted that. So, where are we, percentage-wise now? he asked.
Strangely, he pointed out, we are still at a 10% taxable rate because, while President Trump wanted 15%, no one did anything about it to raise it. Shhh.
FTR
US Diesel Prices
Fuel remains one of the most immediate challenges. Starks noted that US diesel averaged $5.608 per gallon on April 13, 2026, following the largest weekly price jump on record earlier in March. At 7 mpg, fuel cost per mile rose roughly 21 cents in three weeks, a shift that directly impacts vocational fleets and mobile service operations.
Tariff uncertainty is also reshaping cost structures. FTR’s analysis shows a sharp gap between announced tariff rates and the actual effective tariff rate, which climbed to 13.1% by late 2025.
While the macroeconomic picture remains mixed, freight indicators are beginning to stabilize. FTR’s data shows improving container volumes and modest growth expectations for North American intermodal loads through 2027. Dry van and flatbed spot rates remain below five‑year averages, but the firm noted that market balance is gradually returning as capacity tightens.
Truckload employment and total loadings continue to trend within expected ranges, suggesting that carriers are adjusting to demand rather than exiting the market at the pace seen in 2023–24.
Starks also noted that Class 8 orders rose sharply in 2026, but that trailer demand softened.
He pointed out that North American Class 8 net orders jumped 47% month‑over‑month, reaching their highest level since September 2022. Starks said that the surge may be because of the easing of tariff and emissions‑rule uncertainty, along with early freight‑market improvement.
Trailer orders, however, tell a different story. Demand remains replacement‑driven, and the 2026 order season is down 19% year‑over‑year, reflecting fleets’ focus on managing costs and prioritizing tractors over trailers.
What it means for service truck operators
For technicians and mobile repair providers, the outlook points to a year where:
- Fuel‑related operating costs remain volatile;
- Parts pricing may fluctuate with tariff changes;
- Fleets may delay trailer maintenance or replacement;
- Class 8 activity could increase service demand as new units enter operation.
Per FTR, utilization is expected to remain near the 10‑year average of 92%, signaling steady work for maintenance providers.
For more information on FTR Transportation Intelligence, visit www.FTRintel.com.